Residents of countries within the European Union do not feel completely safe. This is evidenced by a report prepared by European Council on Foreign Relations (ECMO). It was compiled on the basis of interviews with politicians and members of the analytical communities, as well as extensive studies in the field of political documents, academic discourse and analysis of the media.
The report said that the EU is currently facing security threats from the east and south, and cannot fully count on an ally in the West. After all, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly neglected international agreements and norms that are important for Europeans.
And here are the top 5 most terrible of the alleged threats to the EU member states.
5. Uncontrolled migration to the country
Eastern and southern Europeans are particularly concerned about uncontrolled migration to their countries. Slovenia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, Malta and Italy see it as the most significant threat they face.
The main fear is not that terrorists will get to Europe through migration routes (although some of the respondents expressed concern about this as well), but rather that migration will create devastating political consequences in the EU. The problems that most respondents representing 17 EU member states have focused on are the inability of their governments to control the number and type of refugees arriving in Europe.
4. Foreign interference in domestic politics
Estonia is one of two EU member states that consider external interference in domestic politics as the most significant threat to its security. Another country reporting this is Lithuania. Latvia also agrees with its neighbors, which, in addition to external interference in internal affairs, is still afraid of cyber attacks.
3. The deterioration of international institutional order
Luxembourg sees the deterioration of the international order based on strict rules as the main threat to its security
Denmark is also concerned about the potential collapse of the European Union and the deterioration of international order.
An important role in the negative expectations of Europeans is played by the upcoming Brexit of Great Britain. Almost two-thirds of the survey respondents suggested that UK withdrawal from the EU would have a negative or very negative impact on their security.
2. State crash or civil war in a neighboring state
This threat is one of the worst for countries such as the United Kingdom, Poland, Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia, Croatia and Cyprus. In the case of Poland, the fear is the possible collapse of the statehood of Ukraine, although Russia is considered as the worst enemy. The accession of Crimea to Russia in 2014 and the subsequent escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine only confirmed this perception.
Poland is the only EU member state for which interstate warfare is a major security threat. To prepare for this opportunity, the Polish government decided to modernize the armed forces, although this program is not going too fast.
1. Cyber attacks
The possibility of a cyber attack is the worst alleged threat in 2018. Large and (or) successful EU member states (such as Denmark, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) are especially afraid of this. This concern is probably based on an awareness of the dependence of their societies on digitized systems, as these countries are widely regarded as leaders on cyber issues in the EU.
- France and Sweden have made significant progress in developing cyber strategies.
- Denmark was the first EU member country to decide to appoint an ambassador for digital technology.
- And the potential loss of cyber cooperation with Britain after Brexit is causing concern among EU member states.
Respondents interviewed by ECMO stated that there are threats whose importance may decrease by 2028. These include:
- interstate war involving their country or allies;
- EU disintegration;
- power failure;
- financial instability.
They expect all other threats to become more serious in the next ten years.
There is no country worse than Russia
The list of the three worst international threats, according to Europeans surveyed by ESMO, includes jihadists, Russia and international crime groups, as well as North Korea. Respondents to the ECMO study expect these threats to persist until at least 2028. Due to events related to the Crimean peninsula, foreigners began to perceive Russia differently, viewing it as one of the main threats to modern times.
The fear of terrorism is greatest in large countries and in states that have recently survived terrorist attacks (Great Britain, France, Spain, Germany, Denmark and Belgium).
The fear of Russia is most intense in the east (Estonia, Romania, Lithuania, Poland and Finland), although Germany and England regard it as a potential threat.
Estonia and Lithuania are particularly concerned about the possibility of Russian interference in their internal affairs.
